Lowest Number of S&P 500 Companies Citing “Recession” on Earnings Calls Since Q4 2021

Given concerns in the market about a possible economic slowdown or recession, did more S&P 500 companies than normal comment on recession during their earnings conference calls for the fourth quarter?

The answer is no. FactSet Document Search (which allows users to search for key words or phrases across multiple document types) was used to answer this question. Through Document Search, FactSet searched for the term “recession” in the conference call transcripts of all the S&P 500 companies that conducted earnings conference calls from December 15 through March 7.

Of these companies, 47 cited the term “recession” during their earnings calls for the fourth quarter. This number is below the 5-year average of 85 and below the 10-year average of 61.

In fact, this quarter will mark the lowest number of S&P 500 companies citing “recession” on earnings calls for a quarter since Q4 2021 (15). After peaking in Q2 2022, the number of S&P 500 companies citing “recession” on earnings calls has declined (quarter-over-quarter) for six straight quarters.

At the sector level, the Financials (15) and Industrials (12) sectors have the highest number of S&P 500 companies citing “recession” on Q4 earnings calls, while the Materials (22%) and Financials (22%) sectors have the highest percentages of companies citing “recession” on Q4 earnings calls.

It is interesting to note that the term “soft landing” was cited on the Q4 earnings calls of 37 S&P 500 companies. This is the highest number of S&P 500 companies citing the term “soft landing” on quarterly earnings calls going back at least three years.

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