In light of the recent BRICS summit and the group’s goal of de-dollarization, we explored the effects of currency choice on global private market investing via two representative portfolios:
We then compared each to the S&P 500 to see how they perform relative to the American public market equivalent (PME).
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Key Takeaways
Looking at the charts, the two portfolios display largely similar characteristics overall. Both progressions peaked in 2000 and cratered shortly after, reflecting the crash following the dot-com bubble. Then, we see positive progression again through the mid-2000s until a crash during the financial crisis of 2007-2008. Finally, investors received a calm tailwind to finish the 2010s with a safe and consistent outperformance of the S&P 500 at around 10%.
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The non-USD portfolio generated a much higher average level of returns than the USD sample for the bulk of the 2000s, and then leveled to the USD group around the Great Recession. But what caused non-USD funds to outperform their dollar-denominated counterparts throughout the mid 2000s?
The performance of the Euro may be one factor. Euro-denominated funds make up a large portion of the non-USD portfolio, and that currency exhibited strengthening compared to the USD over that period. Another explanation may be European market outperformance during that period. Indices, including the FTSE 350, expanded close to 2x from trough to peak progression in the mid-2000s, while the S&P 500 only expanded around 1.5x during the same period.
Looking Ahead
Determining the impact of different currencies on private market fund performance is a tricky matter. Because investments can be spread across so many markets and individual investment managers, the true impact of the currency performance is difficult to extract. As efforts to attract investment from other currency regimes persist, the currency-agnostic limited partner could benefit from keeping their options open.
This blog post is for informational purposes only. The information contained in this blog post is not legal, tax, or investment advice. FactSet does not endorse or recommend any investments and assumes no liability for any consequence relating directly or indirectly to any action or inaction taken based on the information contained in this article.
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