Next Wave of LNG Projects Sees Tide Turn with New Administration

Since President Trump entered office and issued an executive order aiming to propel the energy industry forward, as well as rescinded the policy that increased regulatory barriers to receive an extension for non-FTA approval, numerous LNG projects have benefited, as they have obtained key approvals and made significant strides towards reaching the market. Below is a look at several proposed LNG projects and how their progress has changed over the course of the last few months.

Commonwealth LNG and CP2 Get Non-FTA Approval

Kimmeridge’s Commonwealth LNG, a proposed 1.25-Bcf/d facility, was the first major project to receive conditional non-FTA approval, which came on February 14^th, and Venture Global’s proposed 2.63-Bcf/d CP2 project received conditional non-FTA approval on March 19^th. The DOE's final decision for both projects’ non-FTA approval is contingent on the DOE's ongoing 2024 LNG Export Study and ensuring compliance with the National Environmental Policy Act (NEPA). These conditional approvals do not permit export operations to commence until a final order is given from the DOE. However, the DOE noted in the orders that conditional approval was granted because the DOE was satisfying President Trump’s executive order, which directed the Secretary of Energy "to restart reviews of applications for approvals of [LNG] export projects as expeditiously as possible, consistent with applicable law.” Commonwealth LNG aims to achieve FID in 3Q25 and to commence LNG production in 1Q29, while Venture Global noted in its 4Q24 earnings that it aims to achieve FID on the first phase of the project in either the second or third quarter of 2025.

Corpus Christi Midscale Trains 8-9 Gets Approval

Also benefiting from the new administration is Cheniere, as its proposed 0.43-Bcf/d expansion project, Corpus Christi Midscale Trains 8-9, received FERC approval on March 10^th, an important step in moving the project forward. Cheniere stated in its 4Q24 earnings that it expects to achieve a positive FID on the project in 2025.

Rio Grande Phase 1 and Texas LNG

In a significant development for two other facilities, the U.S. Court of Appeals for the D.C. Circuit revised its August-2024 decision to overturn FERC’s approval of the first phase of Rio Grande LNG, a 2.13-Bcf/d project, and Glenfarne Energy Transition’s 0.53-Bcf/d Texas LNG. As a result, FERC approval for Rio Grande Phase 1 and Texas LNG is no longer vacated. The decision is positive for both projects, as NextDecade can continue construction on Rio Grande Phase 1, which has been ongoing since the original court decision in August 2024, and Glenfarne continues to work towards FID for the facility and the commencement of EPC activities this year. However, FERC is continuing to proceed with supplemental environmental impact statements (SEIS) for both Rio Grande Phase 1 and Texas LNG, which are expected to be finalized in July 2025, with the issuance of a final order expected in November 2025.

Non-FTA Permit Extensions

Prior to the order on April 1^st that lifted the additional regulatory barriers in obtaining an extension for non-FTA approval, two facilities, Golden Pass LNG and Delfin LNG, received extensions for their non-FTA export permits. Golden Pass, which is currently under construction and slated to come online in YE25, received an extension that gives it until March 31, 2027, to commence exports, while Delfin LNG received an extension pushing its non-FTA export commencement deadline until June 1, 2029. Delfin also received its license from the U.S. Maritime Administration (MARAD), which allows the company to "own, construct, operate, and eventually decommission a deepwater port" to export LNG. Construction is ongoing at Golden Pass, while Delfin LNG has yet to begin construction activities.

Conclusion

BTU Analytics continues to track the above projects and others as they make progress towards reaching the market. More information on these facilities and BTU Analytics’ LNG forecast can be found in the Henry Hub Outlook, part of FactSet’s Premium Energy Workstation.

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