Wall Street strategists are slowly pulling back their dour economic and market outlooks for 2023 as the chances for a goldilocks soft landing grow. Tamer inflation data and a still-strong jobs market paint a more sanguine picture of what this year could have in store. There are still plenty of question marks, though. One of the unknowns will soon be answered as Q4 earnings season presses on.
Spotting Green Shoots
CEOs across the sector spectrum acknowledge some consumer strength, but also a trade-down effect that has been ongoing for a few quarters now as excess savings built up during the pandemic gradually fades away. But with the U.S. unemployment rate hovering at 53-year lows and real wages hopefully turning higher throughout 2023, there are reasons for optimism in the face of so many forecasts of a mild first-half recession.
Hope For Foreign Markets?
And let’s not forget about the overseas picture. The U.S. dollar has retreated markedly from its September 2022 two-decade highs, allowing foreign markets to flourish. Ex-U.S. developed stock indices have outpaced the S&P 500 in the last two months by some 20 percentage points – the biggest relative gain in the last 20 years. What would surely have come as a shocker compared to the dismal economic expectation just a few months ago, Europe could even sidestep a recession this year. A much milder-than-forecast winter definitely helps. What’s more, China’s re-opening following its strict zero-COVID policy could be a tailwind for global GDP growth over the coming 12 months.
To say there are a lot of moving pieces on the macro front is an understatement. We haven’t even mentioned the Fed or what a significant drop in inflation expectations and the interest rate curve means for firms. But the micro matters too. As the tone indeed turns less bleak among forecasters, what executives and company management teams say matters greatly in the coming weeks and months.
Questions to Ponder
What side are you on? Do CEOs see a recession or growth catalysts in the coming quarters?
With inflation sticking, what are firms doing to still keep costs in check?
Are there more opportunities across international markets now versus a year ago?
How have capital allocation plans changed considering a new buyback tax is in play and with steeper corporate borrowing costs?
Has the global supply chain market indeed gone from vast shortages to gluts? Is that impacting margins?
With disappointing retail sales data, concerning regional manufacturing figures lately, and a still sharply inverted yield curve, are the bulls getting ahead of their skis?
Conferences, summits, seminars
Gatherings of the top dogs across the corporate world are critical for investors to follow. Here are some of the major conferences sourced by Wall Street Horizon that investors and traders should keep on their Q1 calendars.
Information Technology and Communication Services
February 22: Goldman Sachs European Digital Economy, Technology & Internet Conference
February 27: Deutsche Bank dbaccess 31st Annual Media, Internet and Telecom Conference
March 2: Susquehanna 12th Annual Technology Conference
March 6: JMP Securities Technology Conference
March 7: Morgan Stanley Technology, Media, and Telecom (TMT) Conference
March 14: Citi TMT Conference 2023
March 16: Alliance Global Partners (AGP) Emerging Growth Technology Conference (Virtual)
March 20: Gartner Data & Analytics Summit US
February 28: Credit Suisse London Global Healthcare Conference
March 6: Cowen and Co. 43rd Annual Healthcare Conference
March 13: Oppenheimer 33rd Annual Healthcare Conference (Virtual)
March 13: Guggenheim Health Altitudes Summit
March 14: Barclays Global Healthcare Conference
March 16: Jefferies Biotech on the Bay Summit
Consumer Discretionary and Consumer Staples
February 28: Jefferies Interactive Entertainment Conference (Virtual)
March 13: Bank of America Business Service, Leisure and Transport C-Suite Conference
March 14: Barclays Transport & Leisure Conference
Financials and Real Estate
February 22: Wells Fargo 26th Annual Real Estate Securities Conference
March 5: Citi Global Real Estate Property CEO Conference
March 27: HSBC 8th Annual West Coast Financials Conference
March 8: DNB Energy & Shipping Conference
March 15: JP Morgan Industrials Conference
March 21: Bank of America Global Securities Industrials Conference
March 23: Jefferies Business Services Summit
March 29: TD Engineering & Construction Conference
Energy and Utilities
March 20: Berenberg 4th Annual Energy Transition Conference
March 20: Piper Sandler 23rd Annual Energy Conference
March 23: NYSE Energy & Utilities Investor Access Day (Virtual)
March 28: Wells Fargo Clean Energy Symposium
March 14: World Agri-Tech Innovation Summit
March 26: BMO Capital Markets 32nd Global Metals & Mining Conference
March 28: 121 Mining Investment Las Vegas
February 27: Morgan Stanley European MedTech & Services Conference
March 8: Credit Suisse Asian Investment Conference
March 13: Berenberg EU Opportunities Conference
March 14: Morgan Stanley European Financials Conference
March 16: JP Morgan Cazenove Pan-European Small/Mid Cap CEO Conference
March 20: Credit Suisse Asian Investment Conference
March 21: Berenberg UK Corporate Conference
March 22: Bank of America EMEA Real Estate CEO Conference
Investor-Specific and Multi-Sector
February 26: Credit Suisse 28th Annual Vail Summit
March 5: Raymond James & Associates 44th Annual Institutional Investors Conference
March 6: JP Morgan Global High Yield & Leveraged Finance Conference
March 12: ROTH Capital Partners Investment Growth Stock 35th Annual Conference
March 21: Macquarie Bright Ideas Consumer Conference
March 22: Sidoti and Company, LLC March Small Cap Conference
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