S&P 500 CY 2025 Earnings Preview: Analysts Expect Earnings Growth of 12.1%

Analysts expect the S&P 500 to report double-digit earnings growth for the second-straight year in CY 2025. The estimated (year-over-year) earnings growth rate for CY 2025 is 12.1%, which is above the 10-year average (annual) earnings growth rate of 8.6% (2015 – 2024). If 12.1% is the final number for the year, it will mark the 5^th consecutive year of earnings growth and 2^nd consecutive year of double-digit growth.

It is interesting to note that three of the top five contributors to earnings growth for CY 2025 are “Magnificent 7” companies: NVIDIA, Alphabet, and Amazon.com. Overall, analysts expect the “Magnificent 7” companies will report earnings growth of 22% in 2025. On the other hand, analysts predict the other 493 companies will report earnings growth of 9% for 2025.

At the sector level, ten of the eleven sectors are predicted to report year-over-year earnings growth in CY 2025. Four of these ten sectors are projected to report double-digit growth: Information Technology, Communication Services, Financials, and Health Care. On the other hand, the Energy sector is the only sector predicted to report a year-over-year decline in earnings.

In terms of revenues, the estimated (year-over-year) revenue growth rate for CY 2025 is 6.9%, which is also above the trailing 10-year average (annual) revenue growth rate of 5.3% (2015 – 2024). Ten of the eleven sectors are projected to report year-over-year growth in revenues, led by the Information Technology, Communication Services, and Health Care sectors. On the other hand, the Energy sector is the only sector expected to report a year-over-year decline in revenues.

The estimated net profit margin (based on aggregate estimates for revenues and earnings) for the S&P 500 for 2025 is 12.9%, which is above the 10-year average (annual) net profit margin of 11.0%. If 12.9% is the actual net profit margin for the year, it will mark the highest annual net profit margin reported by the index since FactSet began tracking this metric in 2008.

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