S&P 500 Earnings Season Preview: Q2 2026

Heading into the start of the earnings season, analysts and companies have been more optimistic than normal in their earnings outlooks for the second quarter. As a result, estimated earnings for the S&P 500 for the second quarter are higher today compared to expectations at the start of the quarter. In addition, the index is expected to report earnings growth above 20% for the second-straight quarter.

In terms of estimate revisions for companies in the S&P 500, analysts increased earnings estimates for Q2 2026 during the quarter. On a per-share basis, estimated earnings for the second quarter increased by 3.4% from March 31 to June 30. In a typical quarter, analysts usually lower earnings estimates during the quarter. Over the past five years (20 quarters), earnings expectations have fallen by 2.0% on average during the quarter. Over the past ten years, (40 quarters), earnings expectations have fallen by 2.7% on average during the quarter.

In terms of guidance, both the number and percentage of S&P 500 companies issuing positive EPS guidance for Q2 2026 are higher than average. At this point in time, 111 companies in the index have issued EPS guidance for Q2 2026, Of these companies, 48 have issued negative EPS guidance and 63 have issued positive EPS guidance. The number of companies issuing positive EPS guidance is well above the 5-year average of 44 and well above the 10-year average of 41. The percentage of S&P 500 companies issuing positive EPS guidance for Q2 2026 is 57% (63 out of 111), which is also well above the 5-year average of 41% and well above the 10-year average of 41%.

However, it should be noted that most of the increase in earnings expectations for Q2 over the past few months has been concentrated in the Energy and Information Technology sectors. The Energy and Information Technology sectors recorded the largest (+61.5%) and second-largest (+8.7%) increases in Q2 EPS estimates of all eleven sectors during the quarter, while the Information Technology sector has the highest number of companies issuing positive EPS guidance (44) for the quarter.

Due to the upward revisions to earnings estimates by analysts and the positive EPS guidance issued by companies, the estimated (year-over-year) earnings growth rate for Q2 2026 is higher today relative to the start of the second quarter. As of today, the S&P 500 is expected to report (year-over-year) earnings growth of 23.3%, compared to the estimated (year-over-year) earnings growth rate of 18.8% on March 31.

If 23.3% is the actual growth rate for the quarter, it will mark the second consecutive quarter of earnings growth above 20% and the seventh consecutive quarter of double-digit earnings growth for the index.

Ten of the eleven sectors are projected to report year-over-year growth, led by the Energy, Information Technology, and Materials sectors. On the other hand, the Health Care sector is the only sector predicted to report a year-over-year decline in earnings.

In terms of revenues, analysts also raised their estimates during the quarter. As of today, the S&P 500 is expected to report (year-over-year) revenue growth of 12.2%, compared to the expectations for revenue growth of 9.5% on March 31.

If 12.2% is the actual revenue growth rate for the quarter, it will mark the highest revenue growth rate reported by the index since Q2 2022 (13.9%). It will also mark the second consecutive quarter of double-digit revenue growth for the index.

All eleven sectors are projected to report year-over-year growth in revenues, led by the Information Technology, Energy, and Communication Services sectors.

For Q3 2026 and Q4 2026, analysts are calling for earnings growth rates of 26.8% and 24.4%. For CY 2026, analysts are predicting (year-over-year) earnings growth of 24.1%.

During the upcoming week, 3 S&P 500 companies are scheduled to report results for the second quarter.

The FactSet Earnings Insight report is being published one day early this week on July 2. 

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