S&P 500 Earnings Season Update: October 15, 2021

At this point in time, more S&P 500 companies are beating EPS estimates for the third quarter than average, and beating EPS estimates by a wider margin than average. Due to these positive surprises, the index is reporting higher earnings for the third quarter today relative to the end of last week and relative to the end of the quarter. The index is now reporting the third highest (year-over-year) growth in earnings since Q3 2010. Analysts also expect earnings growth of more than 20% for the fourth quarter and earnings growth of more than 40% for the full year. These above-average growth rates are due to a combination of higher earnings for 2021 and an easier comparison to weaker earnings in 2020 due to the negative impact of COVID-19 on a number of industries.

Positive Earnings Surprises As We Begin the Q3 Earnings Season

Overall, 8% of the companies in the S&P 500 have reported actual results for Q3 2021 to date. Of these companies, 80% have reported actual EPS above estimates, which is above the five-year average of 76%. In aggregate, companies are reporting earnings that are 14.7% above estimates, which is also above the five-year average of 8.4%.

Due to the number and magnitude of these positive EPS surprises, the index is reporting higher earnings for the third quarter today relative to the end of last week and relative to the end of the third quarter. The blended (combines actual results for companies that have reported and estimated results for companies that have yet to report) earnings growth rate for the third quarter is 30.0% today, compared to an earnings growth rate of 27.5% last week and an earnings growth rate of 27.5% at the end of the third quarter (September 30). Positive earnings surprises reported by companies in the Financials sector (led by JPMorgan Chase, Goldman Sachs, Bank of America, Citigroup, Wells Fargo, and Morgan Stanley) were mainly responsible for the improvement in overall earnings for the index during the past week. Positive earnings surprises reported by companies in the Financials sector (led by these same six companies) have also been the top contributors to the overall increase in earnings for the index since the end of the third quarter.

If 30.0% is the actual growth rate for the quarter, it will mark the third highest (year-over-year) earnings growth rate reported by the index since Q3 2010, trailing only the previous two quarters. The unusually high growth rate is due to a combination of higher earnings in Q3 2021 and an easier comparison to lower earnings in Q3 2020 due to the negative impact of COVID-19 on a number of industries. Ten sectors are reporting (or are expected to report) year-over-year earnings growth, led by the Energy, Materials, Industrials, Financials, and Information Technology sectors.

Above Average Share of Companies with Positive Revenue Surprises

In terms of revenues, 83% of S&P 500 companies have reported actual revenues above estimates, which is above the five-year average of 67%. If 83% is the final percentage for the quarter, it will mark the second highest percentage of S&P 500 companies reporting a positive revenue surprise since FactSet began tracking this metric in 2008. In aggregate, companies are reporting revenues that are 3.0% above the estimates, which is also above the five-year average of 1.4%. If 3.0% is the final percentage for the quarter, it will mark the third-highest revenue surprise percentage reported by the since FactSet began tracking this metric in 2008.

Due to the number and magnitude of these positive revenue surprises, the blended revenue growth rate for the third quarter is higher now relative to the end of last week and relative to the end of the third quarter. As of today, the S&P 500 is reporting year-over-year growth in revenues of 15.1%, compared to year-over-year growth in revenues of 14.8% last week and year-over-year growth in revenues of 15.0% at the end of the third quarter (September 30). Positive revenue surprises reported by companies in the Financials sector were mainly responsible for the increase in overall revenues for the index over the past week. Positive revenue surprises reported by companies in the Financials sector have also been the largest contributors to the increase in the overall revenues for the index since the end of the third quarter.

If 15.1% is the actual growth rate for the quarter, it will mark the second highest (year-over-year) revenue growth rate reported by the index since FactSet began tracking this metric in 2008, trailing only the previous quarter. All 11 sectors are reporting (or are expected to report) year-over-year growth in revenues, led by the Energy and Materials sectors.

Looking ahead, analysts project earnings growth of more than 20% for Q4 2021 and more than 40% for CY 2021.

The forward 12-month P/E ratio is 20.3, which is above the five-year average and above the 10-year average. It is also above the forward P/E ratio of 20.1 at the start of the third quarter (September 30).

During the upcoming week, 80 S&P 500 companies (including eight Dow 30 components) are scheduled to report results for the third quarter.

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