S&P 500 Energy and Utilities Sectors Earnings Previews: Q1 2025

Energy Sector: Largest Year-Over-Year Earnings Decline of all 11 Sectors

The Energy sector will be a focus for the market this week, as Exxon Mobil and Chevron are scheduled to report earnings on May 2. The Energy sector is reporting the largest (year-over-year) earnings decline of all eleven sectors in the S&P 500 for Q1 2025 at -14.2%. Lower year-over-year oil prices are contributing to the year-over-year decrease in earnings for this sector, as the average price of oil in Q1 2025 ($71.38) was 7% below the average price for oil in Q1 2024 ($76.91).

It is interesting to note that analysts have continued to lower EPS estimates for companies in the Energy sector since the end of the first quarter. As a result, the blended earnings decline for the Energy sector has increased to -14.2% from -12.3% since March 31.

At the sub-industry level, 3 of the 5 sub-industries in the sector are reporting (or are expected to report) a year-over-year decline in earnings: Oil & Gas Refining & Marketing (-108%), Integrated Oil & Gas (-15%), and Oil & Gas Equipment & Services (-8%). On the other hand, two sub-industries are reporting year-over-year growth in earnings: Oil & Gas Exploration & Production (15%) and Oil & Gas Storage & Transportation (12%).

The Oil & Gas Refining & Marketing sub-industry is also the largest contributor to the earnings decline for the sector. If this sub-industry were excluded, the blended earnings decline for the Energy sector would improve to -3.4% from -14.2%.

Looking ahead, analysts are predicting earnings growth for the sector starting in Q4 2025. For Q2 2025 and Q3 2025, analysts are calling for earnings declines of -20.1% and -4.3%, respectively. For Q4 2025 and Q1 2026, analysts are expecting earnings growth rates of 3.2% and 14.6%, respectively.

FactSet Senior Energy Analyst Connor McLean provided commentary on key trends to watch for the Energy sector during this earnings season. (View more commentary from Connor.)

Entering the second quarter of 2025, the big question is how companies will position themselves in the face of price uncertainty. OPEC+ has announced it will unwind 2.2 MMb/d of voluntary production cuts, introducing supply-side pressure on the global market at a time when tariffs are driving significant uncertainty around global demand growth. With WTI futures averaging near $60/bbl through the end of 2026, upstream companies may be more conservative in their messaging than in previous quarters.

Any pullback in oil-directed growth could add additional support to an outlook for US gas that is already viewed as constructive. Henry Hub pricing has recovered following a strong winter, and demand for US LNG remains robust as new facilities have come online. Projections for substantial growth in AI-driven gas demand add another potential tailwind for long-term gas pricing, particularly in regions facing pipeline infrastructure constraints and policy headwinds that could delay renewable development.

Utilities Sector: All 5 Industries Reporting Year-Over-Year Earnings Growth

The Utilities sector will also be a focus for the market over the next two weeks, as 81% of the companies in this sector are scheduled to report earnings over this period. The Utilities sector is reporting the fourth-largest (year-over-year) earnings growth rate of all eleven sectors in the S&P 500 for Q1 at 10.7%.

At the industry level, all 5 industries in the sector are reporting (or are projected to report) year-over-year earnings growth: Independent Power and Renewable Energy Producers (65%), Water Utilities (11%), Multi-Utilities (11%), Electric Utilities (9%), and Gas Utilities (7%).

Looking ahead, analysts believe earnings growth for the sector will continue over the next four quarters. For Q2 2025 through Q1 2026, analysts are calling for earnings growth rates of 5.5%, 16.5%, 12.2%, and 7.5%, respectively.

FactSet Senior Content Manager Nate Miller discussed key trends to watch related to the Utilities sector during this earnings season. (View more commentary from Nate.) 

Soon after taking office, President Trump declared an energy emergency and quickly called for a pause on wind turbine leasing and permitting, potentially affecting up to 90% of prospective wind projects. His tariff strategy and the threat of trade wars has disrupted supply chains globally, and an effective tariff rate of up to 245% on China is likely to seriously hamper PV panel imports, especially if neighboring countries with satellite factories are subject to tariffs as well following the 90-day pause.

Additionally, a series of executive orders were signed in early April that are meant to strengthen the coal industry by recategorizing coal as a mineral, expanding federal land leases for mining, and ordering the review of State policies pertaining to addressing climate change, emissions, and environmental justice. Any coal retirements that get pushed back or postponed due to these executive orders would minimize gas upside, but may help towards meeting large, forecasted load increases driven by data centers and AI.

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