S&P 500 Forward P/E Ratio Dips Below 18.0 for the First Time Since Q2 2020

On May 5, the closing price for the S&P 500 declined by 3.6% to 4146.87 (from 4300.17). Due to this decrease in price, the forward 12-month P/E ratio for the S&P 500 fell to 17.6 from 18.2. How does this 17.6 P/E ratio compare to historical averages?

How Much Has the S&P 500 Forward P/E Ratio Changed in Recent Months?

The forward 12-month P/E ratio of 17.6 on May 5 was below the five-year average of 18.6. However, it was still above the next four most recent historical averages: 10-year (16.9), 15-year (15.5), 20-year (15.5), and 25-year (16.5).

In fact, prior to the last eight trading days, this marked the first time the forward 12-month P/E ratio was below 18.0 since April 13, 2020 (17.9). However, the forward 12-month P/E ratio of 17.6 on May 5 was still well above the lowest P/E ratio of the past nine years of 13.1 recorded on March 23, 2020.

At the sector level, five sectors had forward 12-month P/E ratios on May 5 that were below 18.0, led by the Energy (10.3) and Financials (12.8) sectors. On the other hand, six sectors had forward 12-month P/E ratios that were at or above 18.0 on that date, led by the Consumer Discretionary (25.0) sector.

On January 3, 2022, the S&P 500 closed at a record-high value of 4796.56. The forward 12-month P/E ratio on that date was 21.4. From January 3 through May 5, the price of the S&P 500 decreased by 13.5%, while the forward 12-month EPS estimate increased by 5.7%. Thus, the decrease in the “P” has been the main driver of the decrease in the P/E ratio since January 3.

It is important to note that analysts were still projecting record-high EPS for the S&P 500 of $228.98 for CY 2022 and $250.95 for CY 2023 on May 5. If not, the forward 12-month P/E ratio would likely have been higher than 17.6.

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