Featured Image

S&P 500 Will Likely Report Year-Over-Year Earnings Growth of At Least 7% for Q1

Earnings

By John Butters  |  April 12, 2024

As of today, the S&P 500 is reporting earnings growth of 0.9% for the first quarter, which would mark the third-straight quarter of year-over-year earnings growth. Given that most S&P 500 companies report actual earnings above estimates, what is the likelihood the index will report earnings growth of 0.9% for the quarter?

Based on the average improvement in the earnings growth rate during the earnings season, the index will likely report year-over-year growth in earnings of more than 7% for the first quarter.

When companies in the S&P 500 report actual earnings above estimates during an earnings season, the overall earnings growth rate for the index increases because the higher actual EPS numbers replace the lower estimated EPS numbers in the calculation of the growth rate. For example, if a company is projected to report EPS of $1.05 compared to year ago EPS of $1.00, the company is projected to report earnings growth of 5%. If the company reports actual EPS of $1.10 (a $0.05 upside earnings surprise compared to the estimate), the actual earnings growth rate for the company for the quarter is now 10%, five percentage points above the estimated growth rate (10% - 5% = 5%).

In fact, the actual earnings growth rate has exceeded the estimated earnings growth rate at the end of the quarter in 37 of the past 40 quarters for the S&P 500. The only exceptions were Q1 2020, Q3 2022, and Q4 2022.

Over the past ten years, actual earnings reported by S&P 500 companies have exceeded estimated earnings by 6.7% on average. During this same period, 74% of companies in the S&P 500 have reported actual EPS above the mean EPS estimate on average. As a result, from the end of the quarter through the end of the earnings season, the earnings growth rate has increased by 5.5 percentage points on average (over the past ten years) due to the number and magnitude of positive earnings surprises. If this average increase is applied to the estimated earnings growth rate at the end of Q1 (March 31) of 3.4%, the actual earnings growth rate for the quarter would be 8.9% (3.4% + 5.5% = 8.9%).

Over the past five years, actual earnings reported by S&P 500 companies have exceeded estimated earnings by 8.5% on average. During this same period, 77% of companies in the S&P 500 have reported actual EPS above the mean EPS estimate on average. As a result, from the end of the quarter through the end of the earnings season, the earnings growth rate has increased by 7.2 percentage points on average (over the past five years) due to the number and magnitude of positive earnings surprises. If this average increase is applied to the estimated earnings growth rate at the end of Q1 (March 31) of 3.4%, the actual earnings growth rate for the quarter would be 10.6% (3.4% + 7.2% = 10.6%).

Over the past four quarters (Q1 2023 through Q4 2023), actual earnings reported by S&P 500 companies have exceeded estimated earnings by 6.4% on average. During these four quarters, 78% of companies in the S&P 500 reported actual EPS above the mean EPS estimate on average. As a result, from the end of the quarter through the end of the earnings season, the earnings growth rate increased by 3.9 percentage points on average (during the past four quarters) due to the number and magnitude of positive earnings surprises. If this average increase is applied to the estimated earnings growth rate at the end of Q1 (March 31) of 3.4%, the actual earnings growth rate for the quarter would be 7.3% (3.4% + 3.9% = 7.3%).

01-s&p-500-earnings-growth-end-of-quarter-estimate-versus-actual

02-s&p-500-earnings-surprise-percent-5-year

 

This blog post is for informational purposes only. The information contained in this blog post is not legal, tax, or investment advice. FactSet does not endorse or recommend any investments and assumes no liability for any consequence relating directly or indirectly to any action or inaction taken based on the information contained in this article.

Download the latest Earnings Insight

John Butters

Vice President, Senior Earnings Analyst

Mr. John Butters is Vice President and Senior Earnings Analyst at FactSet. His weekly research report, “Earnings Insight,” provides analysis and commentary on trends in corporate earnings data for the S&P 500 including revisions to estimates, year-over-year growth, performance relative to expectations, and valuations. He is a widely used source for the media and has appeared on CNBC, Fox Business News, and the Business News Network. In addition, he has been cited by numerous print and online publications such as The Wall Street Journal, The Financial Times, The New York Times, MarketWatch, and Yahoo! Finance. Mr. Butters has over 15 years of experience in the financial services industry. Prior to FactSet in January 2011, he worked for more than 10 years at Thomson Reuters (Thomson Financial), most recently as Director of U.S. Earnings Research (2007-2010).

Comments

The information contained in this article is not investment advice. FactSet does not endorse or recommend any investments and assumes no liability for any consequence relating directly or indirectly to any action or inaction taken based on the information contained in this article.