Total Nonfarm Payrolls For June 2025 Are Projected To Rise By 115,000

The median estimate for total nonfarm payroll employment for the month of June 2025 is 115,000.

If 115,000 is the actual increase in nonfarm payrolls, it will mark a decrease relative to the previous month. It will also be below the trailing 12-month average of 144,400.

May 2025 total nonfarm payroll employment increased by 139,000 compared to the median estimate of 130,000. Over the past 12 months, the total nonfarm payroll employment number has surpassed the median estimate in 5 months and fallen short of the median estimate in 7 months. Over the past 5 years (60 months), the total nonfarm payroll employment number has surpassed the median estimate 55% of the time and fallen short of the median estimate 45% of the time. The historical actual numbers for this analysis reflect revised numbers, not the original numbers published on the day of the report.

The median estimate of 115,000 is based on 11 estimates collected by FactSet. These estimates range from a low of 75,000 to a high of 140,000, for a spread of 65,000. This spread is smaller than the trailing 12-month average spread between the low and high estimate of 77,400.

The median estimate for the unemployment rate for the month of June 2025 is 4.3%.

If 4.3% is the actual unemployment rate, it will mark an increase relative to the previous month. It will also be above the trailing 12-month average of 4.1%.

The May 2025 unemployment rate was 4.2% compared to the median estimate of 4.2%. Over the past 12 months, the unemployment rate has surpassed the median estimate in 4 months, matched the median estimate in 5 months, and fallen short of the median estimate in 3 months. Over the past 5 years (60 months), the unemployment rate has surpassed the median estimate 32% of the time, matched the median estimate 18% of the time, and fallen short of the median estimate 50% of the time.

The median estimate of 4.3% is based on 11 estimates collected by FactSet. These estimates range from a low of 4.2% to a high of 4.3%, for a spread of 10 bps. This spread is below the trailing 12-month average spread between the low and high estimate of 18 bps.

Tomorrow, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) will release the total nonfarm payroll employment number and unemployment rate for June. 

 *Actuals reflect revised numbers 

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