U.S. Unemployment Rate Is Projected To Be 4.1% For January 2025

The median estimate for the unemployment rate for the month of January 2025 is 4.1%.

If 4.1% is the actual unemployment rate, it will match the number from the previous month. However, it will be slightly above the trailing 12-month average of 4.0%.

The December 2024 unemployment rate was 4.1% compared to the median estimate of 4.2%. Over the past 12 months, the unemployment rate has surpassed the median estimate in 7 months, matched the median estimate in 2 months, and fallen short of the median estimate in 3 months. Over the past 5 years (60 months), the unemployment rate has surpassed the median estimate 33% of the time, matched the median estimate 13% of the time, and fallen short of the median estimate 53% of the time.

The median estimate of 4.1% is based on 20 estimates collected by FactSet. These estimates range from a low of 4.1% to a high of 4.2%, for a spread of 10 bps. This spread is below the trailing 12-month average spread between the low and high estimate of 20 bps.

The median estimate for total nonfarm payroll employment for the month of January 2025 is 170,000.

If 170,000 is the actual increase in nonfarm payrolls, it will mark a significant decrease relative to the previous month. It will also be below the trailing 12-month average of 186,000.

December 2024 total nonfarm payroll employment increased by 256,000 compared to the median estimate of 160,000. Over the past 12 months, the total nonfarm payroll employment number has surpassed the median estimate in 7 months and fallen short of the median estimate in 5 months. The actual number has exceeded the estimate by 4.6% on average during this time. Over the past 5 years (60 months), the total nonfarm payroll employment number has surpassed the median estimate 67% of the time and fallen short of the median estimate 33% of the time. The actual number has exceeded the estimate by 4.3% on average during this time. The historical actual numbers for this analysis reflect revised numbers, not the original numbers published on the day of the report.

The median estimate of 170,000 is based on 21 estimates collected by FactSet. These estimates range from a low of 125,000 to a high of 250,000, for a spread of 125,000. This spread is larger than the trailing 12-month average spread between the low and high estimate of 84,900.

Tomorrow, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) will release the unemployment rate and total nonfarm payroll employment number for December.

*Actuals reflect revised numbers

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