The U.S. natural gas market saw notable shifts in 2025. The year began with a strong winter, which reduced the oversupply in storage left over from 2024 and supported robust cash pricing. However, these trends proved short-lived. Summer natural gas demand disappointed, with power burn declining summer over summer, which hasn’t occurred since 2021. As a result, storage inventories returned to oversupply compared to the five-year average, causing cash prices to average just over $3.00/MMBtu for the summer. With 2026 now underway, BTU Analytics decided to take a look at the key trends and events expected to shape the trajectory of the U.S. natural gas market for the remainder of the year.
LNG
LNG feedgas deliveries hit new highs in 2025, and that trend is expected to continue in 2026 as new LNG export capacity comes online, most recently from train 4 of Corpus Christi Stage III at the end of December. Between the remaining three trains of Corpus Christi Stage III and the long-awaited Golden Pass facility, 2.7 Bcf/d of new LNG export capacity is slated to come online in 2026. As Golden Pass received its cooldown cargo in early December, BTU Analytics continues to monitor the facility’s commissioning process and whether the ramp-up of new trains continues as planned.
Power
Natural gas power burn is expected to rebound in Summer 2026 from its 2025 slump as more load comes online, with data-center demand growth being the largest contributor to the increase. However, renewable generation buildout continues to grow year over year, particularly from solar and battery energy storage systems. Three large U.S. offshore wind projects, Coastal Virginia, Empire Wind, and Revolution Wind, are anticipated to begin sending power to the grid this year. However, the timeline for their initial-service dates remains uncertain due to the Trump administration’s December 2025 stop-work order, which has been legally challenged by each of the projects' developers. Lastly, planned coal retirements in 2026 highlight the ongoing need for natural gas. If these coal retirements are delayed, natural gas power burn could see downside risk. On the other hand, if summer weather is warmer than normal, natural gas demand could face upside potential.
Production, Takeaway, and Pricing
U.S. natural gas production continues to grow, and with multiple LNG projects ramping up in 2026, incremental supply will be critical to meeting rising demand. Two regions, the Permian and Haynesville, stand out as being essential to providing this supply, especially as the Northeast remains infrastructure constrained. In the Permian, a new wave of long-haul pipelines, approximately 4.5 Bcf/d, is expected to come online in late 2026, providing much-needed takeaway and helping tighten Waha basis. The Haynesville is also positioned to provide essential supply thanks to Momentum Midstream’s NG3 and Williams’ LEG pipelines. Both pipelines began initial flows in 2025 and have added 3.5 Bcf/d of takeaway capacity supporting Gulf Coast LNG demand. On pricing, 2026 Henry Hub expectations hover around $3.50/MMBtu, which should help incentivize adequate production levels.
Looking Forward
As 2026 progresses, the U.S natural gas market will be shaped by several pivotal factors. BTU Analytics expects the timing of new LNG projects, coal retirements and offshore wind development, Permian infrastructure additions, and Haynesville producer response to play major roles. Additional considerations include winter weather patterns that influence the end-of-winter storage balance, summer temperatures and their impact to load, and the reaction of Canadian producers to LNG Canada ramping up, potentially affecting U.S. imports.
Check back regularly for more Energy Market Insights as the 2026 natural gas landscape continues to take shape.
This blog post is for informational purposes only. The information contained in this blog post is not legal, tax, or investment advice. FactSet does not endorse or recommend any investments and assumes no liability for any consequence relating directly or indirectly to any action or inaction taken based on the information contained in this article.
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