Heading into holiday shopping season, analysts more pessimistic on internet retail, department stores, and apparel retail

With “Cyber Monday” today, the performance of retailers will be a focus for the markets. Which retailers in the S&P 500 are projected to see the highest and lowest earnings growth for the fourth quarter? Which retailers in the index have seen the largest upward and downward revisions to earnings estimates over the past month?

In terms of year-over-year earnings growth, nine of the thirteen retail sub-industries in the S&P 500 are predicted to report growth in earnings for the fourth quarter, led by the General Merchandise Stores (21.3%) and Home Improvement Retail (18.5%) sub-industries. On the other hand, four of the thirteen retail sub-industries in the S&P 500 are predicted to report declines in earnings, led by the Home Furnishing Retail (-7.4%) and Internet Retail (-6.0%) sub-industries.

In terms of upward revisions to earnings estimates, only one sub-industry has recorded an increase in expected earnings growth of more than one percentage point since the end of last month: Home Improvement Retail (to 18.5% from 17.1%). Within this sub-industry, Lowe’s has witnessed the largest upward revisions to EPS estimates over this time frame (to $0.43 from $0.41).

In terms of downward revisions to earnings estimates, seven sub-industries have recorded decreases in expected earnings growth of more than one percentage point since October 31, led by the Internet Retail (to -6.0% from 1.6%), Department Stores (to -2.3% from 3.1%) and Apparel Retail (to -3.9% from 9.2%) sub-industries. Within the Internet Retail sub-industry, Amazon.com (to $0.21 from $0.24) and TripAdvisor (to $0.38 from $0.42) have recorded the largest downward revisions to EPS estimates since October 31. Within the Department Stores sub-industry, Nordstrom (to $1.35 from $1.38) has recorded the largest downward revisions to EPS estimates during this period. Within the Apparel Retail subindustry, Gap (to $0.67 from $0.79) and Urban Outfitters (to $0.55 from $0.63) have recorded the largest downward revisions to EPS estimates over the past month.