Analysts Increased EPS Estimates for S&P 500 Companies for 2nd Straight Quarter

Given concerns in the market about higher oil and gas prices, did analysts lower EPS estimates more than normal for S&P 500 companies for the third quarter?

The answer is no. During the third quarter, analysts increased EPS estimates in aggregate for the quarter. The Q3 bottom-up EPS estimate (which is an aggregation of the median EPS estimates for Q3 for all the companies in the index) increased by 1.4% (to $89.84 from $88.64) from June 30 to September 30.

In a typical quarter, analysts usually reduce earnings estimates during the quarter. During the past five years (20 quarters), the average decline in the bottom-up EPS estimate during the quarter has been 2.2%. During the past ten years, (40 quarters), the average decline in the bottom-up EPS estimate during quarter has been 2.5%. During the past fifteen years, (60 quarters), the average decline in the bottom-up EPS estimate during the quarter has been 3.2%. During the past 20 years (80 quarters), the average decline in the bottom-up EPS estimate during the quarter has been 4.2%.

The third quarter marked the second-straight quarter that the bottom-up EPS estimate has increased during the quarter.

At the sector level, three sectors witnessed an increase in their bottom-up EPS estimate for Q3 2026 from June 30 to September 30, led by the Energy (+18.0%) and Information Technology (+3.5%) sectors. On the other hand, eight sectors recorded a decrease in their bottom-up EPS estimate for Q3 2026 during this period, led by the Materials (-10.2), Consumer Staples (-4.0%), and Health Care (-3.3%) sectors.

It is interesting to note that analysts also increased earnings estimates for 2026 over the past three months. From June 30 through September 30, the CY 2026 bottom-up EPS estimate increased by 6.2% (to $361.66 from $340.49). Seven sectors recorded an increase in their bottom-up EPS estimate for CY 2026 during this period, led by the Communication Services (+21.0%), Consumer Discretionary (+18.1%), and Energy (+17.2%) sectors. 

This blog post is for informational purposes only. The information contained in this blog post is not legal, tax, or investment advice. FactSet does not endorse or recommend any investments and assumes no liability for any consequence relating directly or indirectly to any action or inaction taken based on the information contained in this article.