S&P 500 Earnings Season Preview: Q3 2026

Heading into the start of the earnings season, analysts and companies have been more optimistic than normal in their earnings outlooks for the third quarter. As a result, estimated earnings for the S&P 500 for the third quarter are higher today compared to expectations at the start of the quarter. In addition, the index is expected to report earnings growth above 25% for the third-straight quarter.

In terms of estimate revisions for companies in the S&P 500, analysts increased earnings estimates for Q3 2026 during the quarter. On a per-share basis, estimated earnings for the third quarter increased by 1.4% from June 30 to September 30. In a typical quarter, analysts usually lower earnings estimates during the quarter. Over the past five years (20 quarters), earnings expectations have fallen by 2.2% on average during the quarter. Over the past ten years, (40 quarters), earnings expectations have fallen by 2.5% on average during the quarter.

In terms of guidance, both the number and percentage of S&P 500 companies issuing positive EPS guidance for Q3 2026 are higher than average. At this point in time, 116 companies in the index have issued EPS guidance for Q3 2026. Of these companies, 44 have issued negative EPS guidance and 72 have issued positive EPS guidance. The number of companies issuing positive EPS guidance is well above the 5-year average of 42 and well above the 10-year average of 40. The percentage of S&P 500 companies issuing positive EPS guidance for Q3 2026 is 62% (72 out of 116), which is also well above the 5-year average of 40% and well above the 10-year average of 41%.

Due to the upward revisions to earnings estimates by analysts and the positive EPS guidance issued by companies, the estimated (year-over-year) earnings growth rate for Q3 2026 is higher today relative to the start of the third quarter. As of today, the S&P 500 is expected to report (year-over-year) earnings growth of 29.5%, compared to the estimated (year-over-year) earnings growth rate of 26.7% on June 30.

If 29.5% is the actual growth rate for the quarter, it will mark the third consecutive quarter of earnings growth above 25% and the eighth consecutive quarter of double-digit earnings growth for the index.

All eleven sectors are projected to report year-over-year growth. Five of these eleven sectors are predicted to report double-digit growth, led by the Energy, Information Technology, Communication Services, and Materials sectors.

In terms of revenues, analysts have also raised their estimates during the quarter. As of today, the S&P 500 is expected to report (year-over-year) revenue growth of 12.3%, compared to the expectations for revenue growth of 10.9% on June 30.

If 12.3% is the actual revenue growth rate for the quarter, it will mark the third consecutive quarter of double-digit revenue growth for the index.

All eleven sectors are projected to report year-over-year growth in revenues, led by the Information Technology, Energy, and Communication Services sectors.

For Q4 2026, analysts are calling for earnings growth of 27.6%. For CY 2026, analysts are predicting (year-over-year) earnings growth of 32.4%.

The forward 12-month P/E ratio is 19.0 (based on Wednesday’s closing price and forward EPS), which is below the 5-year average (19.8) and below the 10-year average (19.1). This P/E ratio is also below the forward P/E ratio of 20.4 recorded at the end of the second quarter (June 30).

During the upcoming week, 4 S&P 500 companies are scheduled to report results for the third quarter.

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