Featured Image

Analysts Increased EPS Estimates for S&P 500 Companies for First Time Since Q4 2021

Earnings

By John Butters  |  October 3, 2025

Given concerns in the market about inflation and tariffs, have analysts lowered EPS estimates more than normal for S&P 500 companies for the third quarter?

The answer is no. During the third quarter, analysts actually increased EPS estimates slightly for the quarter. The Q3 bottom-up EPS estimate (which is an aggregation of the median EPS estimates for Q3 for all the companies in the index) increased by 0.1% (to $67.41 from $67.32) from June 30 to September 30.

In a typical quarter, analysts usually reduce earnings estimates during the quarter. During the past five years (20 quarters), the average decline in the bottom-up EPS estimate during the quarter has been 1.4%. During the past ten years, (40 quarters), the average decline in the bottom-up EPS estimate during quarter has been 3.2%. During the past fifteen years, (60 quarters), the average decline in the bottom-up EPS estimate during the quarter has been 3.4%. During the past 20 years (80 quarters), the average decline in the bottom-up EPS estimate during the quarter has been 4.3%.

The third quarter marks the first time that analysts have increased EPS estimates in aggregate during a quarter since Q4 2021 (+0.3%).

At the sector level, six of the eleven sectors witnessed an increase in their bottom-up EPS estimate for Q3 2025 from June 30 to September 30, led by the Energy (+4.2%) and Information Technology (+3.6%) sectors. On the other hand, five sectors recorded a decrease in their bottom-up EPS estimate for Q3 2025 during this period, led by the Health Care (-7.3%) sector.

Analysts also increased earnings estimates for 2025 during the past three months. From June 30 through September 30, the CY 2025 bottom-up EPS estimate increased by 1.3% (to $267.65 from $264.15).

At the sector level, six sectors witnessed an increase in their bottom-up EPS estimate for CY 2025 from June 30 to September 30, led by the Communication Services (+3.7%), Consumer Discretionary (+2.9%), and Financials (+2.6%) sectors. On the other hand, five sectors recorded a decrease in their bottom-up EPS estimate for CY 2025 during this period, led by the Health Care (-2.1%) sector.

Analysts also increased earnings estimates for 2026 during the past three months. From June 30 through September 30, the CY 2026 bottom-up EPS estimate increased by 1.2% (to $303.76 from $300.14).

01-sp500-change-in-quarterly-bottom-up-eps-3-months

02-sp500-q325-bottom-up-eps-june-30-to-sep-30

03-sp500-sector-level-change-in-q325-eps-june-30-to-september-30

04-sp500-cy25-bottom-up-eps-june-30-to-september-30

05-sp500-change-in-sector-level-cy25-eps-june-30-to-september-30

 

This blog post is for informational purposes only. The information contained in this blog post is not legal, tax, or investment advice. FactSet does not endorse or recommend any investments and assumes no liability for any consequence relating directly or indirectly to any action or inaction taken based on the information contained in this article.

Download the latest Earnings Insight

John Butters

Vice President, Senior Earnings Analyst

Mr. John Butters is Vice President and Senior Earnings Analyst at FactSet. His weekly research report, “Earnings Insight,” provides analysis and commentary on trends in corporate earnings data for the S&P 500 including revisions to estimates, year-over-year growth, performance relative to expectations, and valuations. He is a widely used source for the media and has appeared on CNBC, Fox Business News, and the Business News Network. In addition, he has been cited by numerous print and online publications such as The Wall Street Journal, The Financial Times, The New York Times, MarketWatch, and Yahoo! Finance. Mr. Butters has over 15 years of experience in the financial services industry. Prior to FactSet in January 2011, he worked for more than 10 years at Thomson Reuters (Thomson Financial), most recently as Director of U.S. Earnings Research (2007-2010).

Comments

The information contained in this article is not investment advice. FactSet does not endorse or recommend any investments and assumes no liability for any consequence relating directly or indirectly to any action or inaction taken based on the information contained in this article.