Back to School Retail: Who Makes the Grade in 2018?

Over the past month, many retailers likely saw increased sales due to the “back-to-school” shopping season (for clothes, school supplies, dormitory furniture, etc.). With much of the “back-to-school” shopping now finished, which retailers in the S&P 500 are expected to be the top performers in the third quarter (which includes the “back-to-school” shopping months of August, September, and October for most retailers)?

For this analysis, retailers in the following S&P 500 retail sub-industries were included because they likely saw some impact from “back-to-school” shopping over the past few weeks:  Apparel Retail, Computer & Electronics Retail, Department Stores, General Merchandise Stores, and Hypermarkets & Super Centers. In addition to the retailers in these five sub-industries, Amazon.com was also included. Three metrics (using the mean estimates for each metric based on estimates submitted to FactSet by industry analysts) were analyzed on a year-over-year basis: estimated EPS growth, estimated same-store-sales growth, and estimated store (number) growth.  Amazon.com did not have estimates available for same-store-sales growth and store growth.

In terms of EPS growth, Amazon.com ($3.09 vs. $0.52) is projected to see the highest earnings growth of these retailers at 494%, while L Brands ($0.04 vs. $0.30) is expected to see the largest earning decline at -86%. In terms of same-store-sales, Costco is expected to see the highest growth at 9.1%, while L Brands is predicted to see the lowest growth at 1.1%. In terms of store growth, Dollar General (15,251 vs. 14,231) is expected to see the largest increase at 6.5%, while Best Buy (1,249 vs. 1,537) is expected to see the largest decrease at 19%. 

S&P 500 “Back-To-School” Retail: Q3 2018

FactSet then ranked all the retailers in each metric and took an average of the three rankings to calculate an overall ranking.  Amazon.com finished at the top of the list of this group of retailers. However, it should be noted Amazon.com was only ranked in the EPS growth category, as estimates are not available for same-store-sales or number of stores. On the other hand, L Brands finished at the bottom of the list, as the company is expected to report a substantial year-over-year decline in EPS and only modest same-store-sales growth and store growth.

S&P 500 “Back-To-School” Retail Rank: Q3 2018