Global Growth Outlook Continues to Dim

Recent updates to global economic forecasts show a slowdown in global growth due to rising trade tensions and increasing economic uncertainty.

The IMF’s October World Economic Outlook shows world GDP growth slowing from 3.6% in 2018 to 3.0% in 2019 and 3.4% in 2020, lowered from July’s interim projections. A 3.0% growth rate would be the slowest global growth since the 2008-2009 global economic slowdown. According to the IMF, risks to the global growth outlook skew to the downside as trade barriers and heightened geopolitical tensions disrupt global supply chains and hamper confidence, investment, and growth.

At the same time, the OECD’s September Interim Economic Outlook projects that global GDP will grow by 2.9% in 2019 and 3.0% in 2020. This represents the fifth consecutive downgrade for the 2019 forecast. The OECD lowered its growth forecasts for most of the world’s major economies, particularly those with greater exposure to global trade.

Over the last six months, FactSet Economic Estimates GDP forecasts for 2019 have largely stabilized while 2020 forecasts continue to be revised lower across most countries. However, we have seen significant downward movements in the estimates for the Euro Area and the UK over the last 18 months.

To see these forecasts in more detail, watch the latest economic forecast video.