S&P 500 Earnings Season Update: January 16, 2026

At this early stage, the fourth quarter earnings season for the S&P 500 is off to a mixed start relative to expectations. While the percentage of S&P 500 companies reporting positive earnings surprises is above recent averages, the magnitude of earnings surprises is below recent averages. As a result, the index is reporting flat earnings for the fourth quarter today relative to the end of last week and slightly lower earnings relative to the end of the quarter. However, the index is still reporting year-over-year earnings growth for the 10^th straight quarter.

Overall, 7% of the companies in the S&P 500 have reported actual results for Q4 2025 to date. Of these companies, 79% have reported actual EPS above estimates, which is above the 5-year average of 78% and above the 10-year average of 76%. In aggregate, companies are reporting earnings that are 5.8% above estimates, which is below the 5-year average of 7.7% and below the 10-year average of 7.0%. Historical averages reflect actual results from all 500 companies, not the actual results from the percentage of companies that have reported through this point in time.

During the past week, positive EPS surprises reported by some companies in the Financials sector and upward revisions to EPS estimates for companies in the Consumer Discretionary sector were offset by downward revisions to EPS estimates for companies in the Energy and Health Care sectors, resulting in no change in the overall earnings growth rate for the index over this period. Since December 31, upward and downward revisions to EPS estimates and positive and negative EPS surprises have mostly offset each other, resulting in a slight decline in the earnings growth rate for the index over this period.

As a result, the index is reporting flat earnings for the fourth quarter today relative to the end of last week and slightly lower earnings relative to the end of the quarter. The blended (combines actual results for companies that have reported and estimated results for companies that have yet to report) earnings growth rate for the fourth quarter is 8.2% today, compared to an earnings growth rate of 8.2% last week and an earnings growth rate of 8.3% at the end of the fourth quarter (December 31).

If 8.2% is the actual growth rate for the quarter, it will mark the tenth consecutive quarter of year-over-year earnings growth for the index.

Seven of the eleven sectors are reporting (or are projected to report) year-over-year growth, led by the Information Technology and Materials sectors. On the other hand, four sectors are reporting (or are predicted to report) a year-over-year decline in earnings, led by the Consumer Discretionary and Energy sectors.

In terms of revenues, 67% of S&P 500 companies have reported actual revenues above estimates, which is below the 5-year average of 70% but above the 10-year average of 66%. In aggregate, companies are reporting revenues that are 0.3% above the estimates, which is below the 5-year average of 2.0% and below the 10-year average of 1.4%. Again, historical averages reflect actual results from all 500 companies, not the actual results from the percentage of companies that have reported through this point in time.

During the past week, positive and negative revenue surprises reported by companies in the Financials sector mostly offset each other, resulting in no change in the overall revenue growth rate for the index over this period. Since December 31, upward and downward revisions to revenue estimates and positive and negative revenue surprises have offset each other, resulting in no change in the overall revenue growth rate for the index over this period.

As a result, the blended revenue growth rate for the fourth quarter is 7.8% today, compared to a revenue growth rate of 7.8% last week and a revenue growth rate of 7.8% at the end of the fourth quarter (December 31).

If 7.8% is the actual revenue growth rate for the quarter, it will mark the second-highest revenue growth rate reported by the index since Q3 2022 (11.0%), trailing on the previous quarter (8.4%). It will also mark the 21^st consecutive quarter of revenue growth for the index.

Ten sectors are reporting (are projected to report) year-over-year growth in revenues, led by the Information Technology and Communication Services sectors. On the other hand, the Energy sector is the only sector predicted to report a year-over-year decline in revenues.

For Q1 2026 and Q2 2026, analysts are calling for earnings growth rates of 12.2% and 14.6%, respectively. For CY 2026 analysts are projecting (year-over-year) earnings growth of 14.9%.

The forward 12-month P/E ratio is 22.2, which is above the 5-year average (20.0) and above the 10-year average (18.8). This P/E ratio is also above the forward P/E ratio of 22.0 recorded at the end of the fourth quarter (December 31).

During the upcoming week, 35 S&P 500 companies (including 4 Dow 30 components) are scheduled to report results for the fourth quarter.

Q4 2025: Scorecard

Q4 2025: Growth

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