S&P 500 Earnings Season Update: May 2, 2025

At this stage of the earnings season, the S&P 500 is reporting strong results for the first quarter. Both the percentage of S&P 500 companies reporting positive earnings surprises and the magnitude of earnings surprises are above their 10-year averages. As a result, the index is reporting higher earnings for the first quarter today relative to the end of last week and relative the end of the quarter. The index is also reporting double-digit earnings growth for the second consecutive quarter.

Overall, 72% of the companies in the S&P 500 have reported actual results for Q1 2025 to date. Of these companies, 76% have reported actual EPS above estimates, which is below the 5-year average of 77% but above the 10-year average of 75%. In aggregate, companies are reporting earnings that are 8.6% above estimates, which is below the 5-year average of 8.8% but above the 10-year average of 6.9%. Historical averages reflect actual results from all 500 companies, not the actual results from the percentage of companies that have reported through this point in time.

During the past week, positive EPS surprises reported by companies in the Health Care, Consumer Discretionary, Communication Services, and Information Technology sectors were the largest contributors to the increase in the overall earnings growth rate for the index over this period. Since March 31, positive EPS surprises reported by companies in the Communication Services, Financials, Health Care, and Information Technology sectors have been largest contributors to the increase in the overall earnings growth rate for the index over this period.

As a result, the index is reporting higher earnings for the first quarter today relative to the end of last week and relative to the end of the quarter. The blended (combines actual results for companies that have reported and estimated results for companies that have yet to report) earnings growth rate for the first quarter is 12.8% today, compared to an earnings growth rate of 10.1% last week and an earnings growth rate of 7.2% at the end of the first quarter (March 31).

If 12.8% is the actual growth rate for the quarter, it will mark the second consecutive quarter of double-digit earnings growth for the index. It will also mark the seventh consecutive quarter of year-over-year earnings growth.

Eight of the eleven sectors are reporting year-over-year growth, led by the Health Care, Communications Services, Information Technology, and Utilities sectors. On the other hand, three sectors are reporting a year-over-year decline in earnings, led by the Energy sector.

In terms of revenues, 62% of S&P 500 companies have reported actual revenues above estimates, which is below the 5-year average of 69% and below the 10-year average of 64%. In aggregate, companies are reporting revenues that are 0.9% above the estimates, which is below the 5-year average of 2.1% and below the 10-year average of 1.4%. Again, historical averages reflect actual results from all 500 companies, not the actual results from the percentage of companies that have reported through this point in time.

During the past week, positive revenue surprises reported by companies in multiple sectors (led by the Health Care sector) were the largest contributors to the increase in the overall revenue growth rate for the index during this period. Since March 31, positive revenue surprises reported by companies in the Health Care sector have been the largest contributors to the increase in the overall revenue growth rate for the index over this period.

As a result, the blended revenue growth rate for the first quarter is 4.8% today, compared to a revenue growth rate of 4.5% last week and a revenue growth rate of 4.4% at the end of the first quarter (March 31).

If 4.8% is the actual revenue growth rate for the quarter, it will mark the 18th consecutive quarter of revenue growth for the index.

Ten sectors are reporting year-over-year growth in revenues, led by the Information Technology and Health Care sectors. On the other hand, the Industrials sector is the only sector reporting a year-over-year decline in revenues.

For Q2 2025 through Q4 2025, analysts are calling for earnings growth rates of 5.7%, 7.8%, and 7.1%, respectively. For CY 2025, analysts are predicting (year-over-year) earnings growth of 9.5%.

The forward 12-month P/E ratio is 20.2, which is above the 5-year average (19.9) and above the 10-year average (18.3). This P/E ratio is equal to the forward P/E ratio of 20.2 recorded at the end of the first quarter (March 31).

During the upcoming week, 92 S&P 500 companies (including 1 Dow 30 component) are scheduled to report results for the first quarter.

Q1 2025: Scorecard

Q1 2025: Growth

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