S&P 500 Earnings Season Update: November 5, 2021

If 39.1% is the actual growth rate for the quarter, it will mark the third highest (year-over-year) earnings growth rate reported by the index since Q2 2010 (41.5%), trailing only the previous two quarters. The unusually high growth rate is due to a combination of higher earnings in Q3 2021 and an easier comparison to lower earnings in Q3 2020 due to the negative impact of COVID-19 on a number of industries. All 11 sectors are reporting year-over-year earnings growth, led by the Energy, Materials, and Industrials sectors.

Revenues on Track for Another Strong Quarter

In terms of revenues, 75% of S&P 500 companies have reported actual revenues above estimates, which is above the five-year average of 67%. In aggregate, companies are reporting revenues that are 2.9% above the estimates, which is also above the five-year average of 1.4%. If 2.9% is the final percentage for the quarter, it will mark the third highest revenue surprise percentage reported by the index since FactSet began tracking this metric in 2008.

Due to the number and magnitude of these positive revenue surprises, the index is reporting higher revenues for the third quarter today relative to the end of last week and relative to the end of the third quarter. The blended revenue growth rate for the third quarter is 17.3% today, compared to a revenue growth rate of 16.0% last week and a revenue growth rate of 14.9% at the end of the third quarter (September 30). Positive revenue surprises reported by companies in multiple sectors, led by the Energy, Health Care, and Financials sectors, were responsible for the increase in overall revenues for the index over the past week. Positive revenue surprises reported by companies in the Energy, Financials, and Health Care sectors have also been the largest contributors to the increase in overall revenues for the index since the end of the third quarter.

If 17.3% is the actual growth rate for the quarter, it will mark the second highest (year-over-year) revenue growth rate reported by the index since FactSet began tracking this metric in 2008, trailing only the previous quarter. All 11 sectors are reporting year-over-year growth in revenues, led by the Energy and Materials sectors.

Looking ahead, analysts project earnings growth of more than 20% for Q4 2021 and more than 40% for CY 2021.

The forward 12-month P/E ratio is 21.4, which is above the five-year average and above the 10-year average. It is also above the forward P/E ratio of 20.1 at the end of the third quarter (September 30), as price increases have outpaced upward revisions to EPS estimates over the past month.

During the upcoming week, 13 S&P 500 companies (including one Dow 30 component) are scheduled to report results for the third quarter.

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