S&P 500 Energy and Utilities Sectors Earnings Previews: Q1 2026

As first-quarter earnings season begins, analysts are closely watching both the Energy and Utilities sectors, which are the focus of today's Earnings Insight. 

Energy Sector: Exxon Mobil is Largest Contributor to Earnings Decline

With the recent rise in the price of oil, what are analysts expecting for earnings for the Energy sector for Q1?

Overall, the Energy sector is currently expected to report the third-largest (year-over-year) earnings decline of all eleven sectors at -0.1%. However, there have been significant changes in earnings expectations for the sector over the past few months.

• On December 31, the estimated (year-over-year) earnings growth rate for the sector was 0.3%. During the next two months, analysts lowered earnings estimates in aggregate for companies in the sector.

• By February 27, the estimated (year-over-year) earnings decline for the sector was -9.5%. Over the next five weeks, analysts increased earnings estimates in aggregate for companies in the sector in conjunction with the rise in the price of oil.

• By April 3, the estimated earnings growth rate for the sector was 12.9%. However, analysts lowered EPS estimates again for companies in the sector over the past week, led by Exxon Mobil (to $1.31 from $1.91).

• On April 8, the company provided guidance on factors impacting earnings for Q1 2026 in an SEC filing. As a result, the estimated earnings decline for the sector is -0.1% today.

It is interesting to note that the price of oil rose by 77% (to $101.38 from $57.42) during the first quarter. However, the average price of oil for Q1 2026 ($72.67) is only 1.8% above the average price of oil for Q1 2025 ($71.38).

At the sub-industry level, 2 of the 5 sub-industries in the sector are predicted to report year-over-year growth in earnings: Oil & Gas Refining & Marketing ($1.9 billion vs. -$125 million) and Oil & Gas Storage & Transportation (27%). On the other hand, 3 sub-industries are projected to report a year-over-year decline in earnings: Integrated Oil & Gas (-19%), Oil & Gas Equipment & Services (-13%), and Oil & Gas Exploration & Production (-1%).

At the company level, Exxon Mobil is the largest contributor to the estimated earnings decline for the sector. If this company were excluded, the Energy sector would be expected to report (year-over-year) earnings growth of 12.5%.

Looking ahead, analysts are predicting earnings growth of more than 35% for the Energy sector for the next 4 quarters. For Q2 2026 through Q1 2027, the estimated earnings growth rates are 71.0%, 42.1%, 40.9%, and 37.6%, respectively.

FactSet Energy Analyst Nathan Hasbrook provided commentary on key trends to watch for oil prices and the Energy sector during this earnings season:

The Middle East conflict has pushed WTI above $100/bbl for the first time since 2022, providing a direct boost in revenue for oil-weighted E&P companies, which will likely be apparent during this quarter’s earnings cycle. This stands in stark contrast to natural gas-weighted producers, who, despite a brief price spike during Winter Storm Fern in January, face relatively stable Henry Hub pricing as US LNG feedgas demand has no room to increase due to high utilizations and storage levels hover near the 5-year average.

While crude prices remain elevated, their durability depends heavily on the conflict's trajectory. The extent of damage to critical infrastructure, including oil fields, pipelines, and export facilities, will ultimately determine whether current price levels can be sustained.

Although modest U.S. production increases are likely to materialize later this year, it remains premature to classify this as a sustained high-price environment or to anticipate meaningful year-over-year oil production growth at this stage. As a result, oil-weighted operators are expected to largely stick to their production and capex guidance for the year, despite current price levels.

For more detailed analysis from Nathan and other FactSet analysts on the Energy sector, view and subscribe to the Energy category of the FactSet Insight blog.

 *A growth rate can’t be calculated for the Oil & Gas Refining & Marketing sub-industry due to loss in Q1 2025 

Utilities Sector: 4^th Highest Year-Over-Year Earnings Growth of all 11 Sectors

With the Q1 earnings season kicking off this week, what are analysts expecting for earnings in the Utilities sector for Q1?

The Utilities sector is expected to report the fourth-highest (year-over-year) earnings growth rate of all eleven sectors at 9.6%. However, this growth rate is below expectations for earnings growth of 10.2% on December 31.

At the industry level, all 5 industries in the sector are projected to report year-over-year earnings growth: Independent Power and Renewable Electricity Producers ($732 million vs. -$122 million), Gas Utilities (16%), Water Utilities (9%), Electric Utilities (6%), and Multi-Utilities (1%).

At the company level, Vistra Corp. ($1.28 vs. -$0.92) is expected to be the largest contributor to earnings growth for the sector. If this company were excluded, the estimated earnings growth rate for the Utilities sector would fall to 5.3% from 9.6%.

Looking ahead, analysts are predicting double-digit earnings growth for the sector for three of the next four quarters. From Q2 2026 through Q1 2027, analysts are projecting earnings growth rates of 15.4%, 10.0%, 17.4%, and 4.9%, respectively.

FactSet Senior Energy Analyst Trevor Fugita discussed key trends to watch related to power and the Utilities sector during this earnings season.

Offshore wind projects have continued to face increased uncertainty since the Trump administration took office. All lease sales and permitting in federal waters were paused on the first day of the administration through an executive order, and later, stop-work orders were issued for all projects under construction. Although the courts ruled the executive order unlawful and blocked the stop-work orders, new leases are still unlikely to occur in the near future. Following the resumption of construction after the stop-work orders, large wind projects such as Revolution Wind and Coastal Virginia Offshore Wind were able to deliver their first power to the grid, and Vineyard Wind completed the installation of all turbines for its project.

Amidst this regulatory uncertainty, the Interior Secretary and the TotalEnergies CEO announced a $928 million settlement, in which the federal government agreed to buy out TotalEnergies' U.S. offshore wind leases. In exchange, TotalEnergies pledged to reinvest the proceeds into LNG and Gulf of Mexico oil production. A few days later, the Interior Department began holding talks with other offshore wind leaseholders regarding similar arrangements. If more companies accept buyouts, we may see increased long-term investment in natural gas, which would help support the near-term load growth from AI data center buildout, but at the expense of long-term offshore wind development.

For more commentary and analysis on the power and the Utilities industry, please see Trevor’s articles on the FactSet Insight blog.

*A growth rate can’t be calculated for Independent Power & Renewable Energy Producers due to loss in Q1 2025

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