S&P 500 Projected to Report First Double-Digit Decline in Earnings (-10%) in 10 Years in Q2

Analysts have sharply reduced earnings estimates for Q2 2020 over the past few weeks. Since March 1, estimated dollar-level earnings for the S&P 500 for the second quarter have decreased by $49.6 billion (to $319.6 billion from $369.2 billion).

At the industry level, analysts have made the largest dollar-level cuts to estimates for companies in the Oil, Gas, & Consumable Fuels and Airlines industries. Combined, these two industries account for $22.6 billion (46%) of the total $49.6 billion decrease in expected earnings for the second quarter since March 1. Other industries that have seen substantial declines in estimated earnings over this period are Automobiles (-$4.1 billion), Hotels, Restaurants, & Leisure (-$2.8 billion) and Banks (-$1.9 billion).

As a result of these downward revisions to estimates, the S&P 500 is now projected to report a year-over-year decline in earnings of -10.0% for Q2 2020, compared to expectations of earnings growth of 3.9% on March 1.

If the index reports a year-over-year decline in earnings of -10.0% in the second quarter, it will mark the first time the index has reported a double-digit (year-over-year) decrease in earnings since Q3 2009 (-15.7%).

Five of the 11 sectors are now projected to report a year-over-year decrease in earnings for the second quarter: Energy (-92.6%), Consumer Discretionary (-31.6%), Industrials (-26.8%), Financials (-9.5%), and Materials (-7.4%).

Analysts in aggregate currently expect earnings growth to return in Q4 2020 (4.5%) and double-digit earnings growth to return in Q1 2021 (14.2%).