S&P 500 Will Likely Report Earnings Growth Above 7% For Q3

The S&P 500 is reporting earnings growth of 4.1% for the third quarter, which would mark the fifth-straight quarter of year-over-year earnings growth rate reported by the index. Given that most S&P 500 companies report actual earnings above estimates, what is the likelihood the index will report earnings growth of 4.1% for the quarter?

Based on the average improvement in the earnings growth rate during the earnings season, the index will likely report year-over-year growth in earnings above 7% for the third quarter.

When companies in the S&P 500 report actual earnings above estimates during an earnings season, the overall earnings growth rate for the index increases because the higher actual EPS numbers replace the lower estimated EPS numbers in the calculation of the growth rate. For example, if a company is projected to report EPS of $1.05 compared to year ago EPS of $1.00, the company is projected to report earnings growth of 5%. If the company reports actual EPS of $1.10 (a $0.05 upside earnings surprise compared to the estimate), the actual earnings growth rate for the company for the quarter is now 10%, five percentage points above the estimated growth rate (10% - 5% = 5%).

In fact, the actual earnings growth rate has exceeded the estimated earnings growth rate at the end of the quarter in 37 of the past 40 quarters for the S&P 500. The only exceptions were Q1 2020, Q3 2022, and Q4 2022.

Over the past ten years, actual earnings reported by S&P 500 companies have exceeded estimated earnings by 6.8% on average. During this same period, 75% of companies in the S&P 500 have reported actual EPS above the mean EPS estimate on average. As a result, from the end of the quarter through the end of the earnings season, the earnings growth rate has increased by 5.5 percentage points on average (over the past ten years) due to the number and magnitude of positive earnings surprises. If this average increase is applied to the estimated earnings growth rate at the end of Q3 (September 30) of 4.4%, the actual earnings growth rate for the quarter would be 9.9% (4.4% + 5.5% = 9.9%).

Over the past five years, actual earnings reported by S&P 500 companies have exceeded estimated earnings by 8.5% on average. During this same period, 77% of companies in the S&P 500 have reported actual EPS above the mean EPS estimate on average. As a result, from the end of the quarter through the end of the earnings season, the earnings growth rate has increased by 7.2 percentage points on average (over the past five years) due to the number and magnitude of positive earnings surprises. If this average increase is applied to the estimated earnings growth rate at the end of Q3 (September 30) of 4.4%, the actual earnings growth rate for the quarter would be 11.6% (4.4% + 7.2% = 11.6%).

Over the past four quarters (Q3 2023 through Q2 2024), actual earnings reported by S&P 500 companies have exceeded estimated earnings by 5.5% on average. During these four quarters, 78% of companies in the S&P 500 reported actual EPS above the mean EPS estimate on average. As a result, from the end of the quarter through the end of the earnings season, the earnings growth rate has increased by 3.1 percentage points on average (during the past four quarters) due to the number and magnitude of positive earnings surprises. If this average increase is applied to the estimated earnings growth rate at the end of Q3 (September 30) of 4.4%, the actual earnings growth rate for the quarter would be 7.5% (4.4% + 3.1% = 7.5%).

Thus, using the most conservative average improvement of these three timeframes, the index will likely report year-over-year earnings above 7% for the quarter.

How are the numbers trending to date? Of the 30 S&P 500 companies that have reported actual earnings for Q3 2024 through October 11, 79% have reported actual EPS above the mean EPS estimate. In aggregate, actual earnings reported by these 30 companies have exceeded estimated earnings by 5.9%. However, due to downward revisions to EPS estimates, the earnings growth rate for the S&P 500 has decreased by 0.3 percentage points (to 4.1% from 4.4%) since September 30.

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