U.S. Jobs Are Projected to Rise by 153,000 for December 2024

The median estimate for total nonfarm payroll employment for the month of December 2024 is 153,000.

If 153,000 is the actual increase in nonfarm payrolls, it will mark a significant decrease relative to the previous month. It will also be below the trailing 12-month average of 189,500.

November 2024 total nonfarm payroll employment increased by 227,000 compared to the median estimate of 200,000. Over the past 12 months, the total nonfarm payroll employment number has surpassed the median estimate in 7 months and fallen short of the median estimate in 5 months. The actual number has exceeded the estimate by 6.4% on average during this time. Over the past 5 years (60 months), the total nonfarm payroll employment number has surpassed the median estimate 65% of the time and fallen short of the median estimate 35% of the time. The actual number has exceeded the estimate by 3.0% on average during this time. The historical actual numbers for this analysis reflect revised numbers, not the original numbers published on the day of the report.

The median estimate of 153,000 is based on 19 estimates collected by FactSet. These estimates range from a low of 125,000 to a high of 200,000, for a spread of 75,000. This spread is smaller than the trailing 12-month average spread between the low and high estimate of 83,300.

The median estimate for the unemployment rate for the month of December 2024 is 4.2%.

If 4.2% is the actual unemployment rate, it will match the number from the previous month. However, it will be above the trailing 12-month average of 4.0%.

The November 2024 unemployment rate was 4.2% compared to the median estimate of 4.1%. Over the past 12 months, the unemployment rate has surpassed the median estimate in 6 months, matched the median estimate in 2 months, and fallen short of the median estimate in 4 months. Over the past 5 years (60 months), the unemployment rate has surpassed the median estimate 30% of the time, matched the median estimate 13% of the time, and fallen short of the median estimate 57% of the time.

The median estimate of 4.2% is based on 17 estimates collected by FactSet. These estimates range from a low of 4.1% to a high of 4.3%, for a spread of 20 bps. This spread is equal to the trailing 12-month average spread between the low and high estimate of 20 bps.

Tomorrow, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) will release the total nonfarm payroll employment number and the unemployment rate for December.

*Actuals reflect revised numbers

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